The US plans to contribute $250 million toward an investment consortium that would help fund projects aimed at strengthening supply chains for energy and critical minerals, according to a Trump administration official…Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs Jacob Helberg said Monday that the US would administer the consortium, which would bring together as much as $1 trillion in assets under management from sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors. Other participants would include SoftBank Group Corp., Temasek Holdings Pte and the Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Investment Co. wealth fund, he said…A top priority for the consortium are investments that focus on preserving access to energy and rare earths for the US and its allies, Helberg said, especially “mineral security, logistics, and likely energy security infrastructure.” He said the US and the institutional investors will be reviewing a list of projects…The fund is part of a broader US-led supply-chain alliance known as Pax Silica, which has expanded to include energy infrastructure projects following the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. We want to avoid “single-points of failure,” Helberg said, pointing at the ripple effects in energy markets since the start of the war with Iran…Pax Silica, an alliance designed to increase global cooperation on supply chains for advanced manufacturing, counts Japan, India, South Korea, the UK, United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Singapore among its members.

China has invested more than $120 billion in overseas mining and upstream processing since 2023, accelerating a state-backed push to secure the raw materials underpinning the global energy transition, says Australian think tank Climate Energy Finance (CEF)…The scale of the push reflects what the authors describe as a coordinated strategy of “green energy statecraft,” in which Beijing is working to dominate not just resource extraction, but the full value chain that turns raw materials into battery-grade and industrial inputs…Since early 2023, Chinese firms have also deployed more than $220 billion into downstream sectors such as battery manufacturing, electric vehicles, grids, solar and wind infrastructure, creating what researchers describe as a vertically integrated global cleantech expansion…Together, upstream resource investments and downstream manufacturing form a unified system designed to secure supply, reduce dependence on foreign inputs and reinforce China’s position at the center of the low-carbon economy…That dominance is already evident. According to CEF estimates, China now controls about 90% of global rare earth refining, roughly 60% of lithium processing, more than 70% of cobalt refining and over half of global steel production. It also produces more than 90% of battery cathode and anode materials…Much of China’s recent mining investment has flowed into resource-rich regions across Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia…In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chinese companies have expanded their hold over copper and cobalt production, while in Indonesia, Chinese-backed investment has helped transform the country into the world’s largest nickel producer and processor…Chinese firms are increasingly partnering with host governments to build in-country processing facilities, infrastructure such as railways, ports and power systems, and local industrial capacity, in exchange for long-term supply agreements, says CEF founder Tim Buckley, who co-authored the report…By combining mining, processing and manufacturing, Beijing is strengthening its ability to influence pricing, availability and technology pathways in critical minerals markets, the CEF report notes, emphasizing that the trajectory remains one of expansion, not retreat, as China adapts its strategy to changing political and economic conditions…Meanwhile, China’s growing market power is raising concerns among Western governments and industry players, who see growing risks to supply chain security and geopolitical stability…Still, replicating China’s scale and integration would take years.

African export restrictions on crucial battery metals are dealing a blow to Chinese companies that have spent billions of dollars developing mines there to dominate supplies…For more than a decade, Chinese miners have plowed money into Africa to secure feedstocks for their refineries and factories back home amid expectation of surging demand for minerals used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. While other parts of the world pushed back against Chinese efforts to gain a foothold, African nations still largely welcome those investments…But things are becoming more difficult. The Democratic Republic of Congo began cobalt export curbs in February 2025 to reduce a glut and capture more value from its output, while Zimbabwe last month banned shipments of lithium concentrates to encourage local processing. The moves quickly raised prices, which are currently at or near multiyear highs…That’s creating a predicament for Chinese miners, which for now cannot reap the full benefit of their assets there…“The mining landscape in Africa is changing drastically and the broader trend towards resource sovereignty or resource nationalism is more likely to increase than fade, particularly given the geopolitical competition for critical resources.”…CMOC alone has pumped about $9 billion into a pair of Congolese copper-cobalt mines since 2016 and recently unveiled a $1.1 billion expansion project…That helped Congo more than double cobalt output in just three years, while Zimbabwe has become the world’s fourth-biggest lithium producer. It has also drawn the attention of Washington, which wants to cut dependence on Beijing for critical minerals…Although Congo’s full ban was replaced with strict quotas in October, exports didn’t resume until recently due to delays in implementing new procedures, and are still far below normal. The curbs caused benchmark prices to jump more than 160% and cobalt hydroxide – the main product shipped from Congo – to more than quadruple, according to Fastmarkets Ltd.

The U.S. and Israel have used thousands of munitions in their air campaign against Iran…The Iran war, coming on top ‌of Ukraine - now in its fifth year - is draining stocks not just of missiles but of the metals that make them so lethally efficient…The Pentagon sought fresh supplies of ‌13 critical ⁠minerals — including tungsten — from industry partners the day before U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began…The ⁠Tomahawk cruise missile, for example, is thought to contain up to 18 critical metals across its guidance, electronics and warhead systems, although detailed information is classified…Amanda van Dyke, founder of the Critical Minerals Hub, argues, opens new tab that "missile math is mineral math" and that the current Gulf conflict amounts to a massive "mineral sink."…But most of the minerals in question are currently produced in China.

The Iran war will reinforce ⁠the West's drive ​for greater mineral autonomy. But building multiple new supply chains from mine to processing to product is going ​to take time.

Time the West may no longer have.

Comment: Bismuth is one of the 13 minerals sought by the Pentagon and both cobalt and bismuth are used in Tomahawk missiles.

"As it stands today, we need permission from the Chinese government to make things. We need permission from the Chinese government to make military things," Litinsky said. "The practical reality is, that is not an acceptable condition."…Right now, China holds a near-monopoly over the strategic metals that go into so-called rare earth permanent magnets, key components in so much that makes the modern world go, according to Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. But, he added, China hasn't just cornered the market…"They also weaponize it, because if anybody in the rest of the free world said, 'Hey, we're going to start mining and we're going to start refining,' then they would target that particular mineral, dump a quantity onto the market, drive the price down. And companies, including U.S. companies that were profitable, suddenly became unprofitable," Burgum said…Last April, Mr. Trump unveiled his global tariffs plan on what he called Liberation Day. China retaliated to devastating effect, temporarily choking off rare earths to the U.S.; Ford Motor Company, suddenly without a reliable source of magnets, had to pause production on Explorer SUVs. After a series of trade truces, China resumed sending rare earth magnets to the U.S., with certain restrictions…There were only eight employees when Litinsky and Rosenthal launched MP Materials. Today, there are more than 700 employees, just at Mountain Pass…After Mr. Trump announced tariffs in April 2025, major manufacturers and the U.S. government found themselves confronting China as it restricted the flow of rare earths and supermagnets…"The Pentagon wanted a Manhattan-style project to accelerate the entire supply chain of rare earth magnetics in the country," Litinsky said…Litinsky and Rosenthal were asked to scale up everything as quickly as possible, and an unusual deal was brokered. The Pentagon agreed to inject $400 million into MP Materials (plus another $150 million to develop a refinery to process so-called "heavy" rare earths) and the U.S. government took a 15% ownership stake. Critically, the deal came with a guaranteed 10-year price floor for MP's rare earth oxide, $110,000 a ton, and promised to make up the difference to the company if prices drop below that. So, even if China tries to flood the market again, MP is covered. If rare earth oxide prices rise above that floor, the U.S. government shares the profits…"I'd certainly call it pragmatism," Burgum said, "because free markets work, but they don't work if you have an adversary that controls a monopoly that control[s] the prices."

Comment: China controls ~80% of bismuth mine supply and ~90% of bismuth refinery production and currently has export restrictions on bismuth. The US has just closed a Request for Project Proposals seeking solutions for specific critical minerals, including bismuth. China also controls ~60% of global cobalt mine production and 83% of cobalt refinery production. Fortune’s NICO Project contains 12% of global bismuth reserves, has a significant amount of cobalt, and is vertically integrated with a planned mine and refinery in Canada.