When China announced export controls on several critical minerals—including rare earth elements—and related processing technologies and materials this October, the United States well understood the enormous economic consequences such restrictions could carry. Washington rushed to the negotiating table, resulting in a one-year pause on the measures, wrapping up the latest round of tit-for-tat export control escalations between the two countries…This episode illustrates the true power of critical minerals. They now sit at the center of economic policymaking worldwide, with advanced economies racing to secure reliable access to the metals that power the modern global economy…It is no surprise that the global race to secure long-term access to these resources is accelerating. The list of critical minerals is extensive—the latest US Department of the Interior assessment identifies fifty-four such commodities. But four of them stand out for their strategic value: lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite. These minerals are foundational to the future energy economy, in part because they form the core inputs of lithium-ion technologies that power electric vehicles, drones, grid storage, and modern electronics. At the same time, key nodes of their supply chains are highly concentrated. Securing access to these minerals is essential for economic competitiveness, national security, and the global energy transition…Serious players in the critical minerals landscape specialize in at least one of three key assets—and the assets that these countries lack can present strategic vulnerabilities. One asset is access to reserves or mineral supply, either through geographic fortune or effective dealmaking with nations that host these resources. A second is processing capacity. While raw materials matter, true strategic advantage comes from the ability to reduce dependence on others to make use of those raw materials. And a third is strong export capability, which depends on having either an abundant supply, advanced processing infrastructure, or, ideally, both…Whatever path the current administration chooses, it is clear that expanding global processing capacity remains a crucial—and currently missing—step in strengthening supply-chain control and export competitiveness. 

China’s decision to pause several newly announced rare-earth and critical-mineral export controls marks a significant, although temporary, shift in the global supply-chain landscape. Through the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (“MOFCOM”) Announcements No. 70 and No. 72 (2025), Beijing has suspended both the October rare-earth restrictions and the U.S.-specific dual-use licensing requirements that were set to tighten dramatically in 2025–2026. While framed as a confidence-building step following recent U.S.– China diplomatic engagement, the suspension offers industries dependent on rare earths, advanced magnets, and battery materials a brief window to reassess sourcing strategies, secure licensing where available, and prepare for the likelihood that controls may return once broader geopolitical calculations evolve…What Remains in Force…Despite the high-profile suspensions, China’s underlying export-control architecture remains largely intact, and in several critical areas, unchanged. The most consequential of these continuing restrictions is Article 1 of Announcement 46 (2024), which still categorically prohibits exports of dual-use items to U.S. military end users or for military end-use applications. None of the November announcements altered or narrowed this prohibition, meaning that China’s military-end-use firewall remains firmly in place…Equally important is the fact that China’s earlier expansion of its Dual-Use Items Control List continues to apply without interruption. Announcement 18 (2025), which added seven medium- and heavy-rare-earth elements, including samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium, along with their metals, oxides, alloys, compounds, mixtures, and magnet materials, has not been suspended. These additions now sit permanently within the framework governing controlled materials and continue to trigger licensing obligations for both Chinese exporters and foreign purchasers. Earlier controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, indium, and other strategic minerals issued in 2025 also remain intact.