The Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) announced export quotas, to be implemented next month, are expected to tighten the cobalt market in the coming months towards balance, but would not cause an immediate spike in prices, according to market participants…Several market participants floated prices through the high $16s/low $17s in the near term, with $20/lb as a plausible waypoint into the first quarter, provided enforcement holds and logistics push first-quota cargoes into January…"I think standard grade could move to $20/lb in the first quarter… but not overnight", one trader said…According to Argus estimates, DRC exported 199,000t of cobalt contained in hydroxide last year, meaning that at 96,600 t/yr quota in 2026-27 equates to 49pc of last year's shipments, or 44pc if only the 87,000t base is effectively available…But some participants reported export volumes to Argus of 169,000t last year, making the quota appear more loose at around 50–60pc of last year's volumes; others reported export tallies nearer 220,000t, implying 40pc…And several factors still cloud the extent to which prices will rise, such as the bullish effect of electronics led LCO demand, which is firming into year-end, or the extent to which refiners dissolve metal into chemicals if hydroxide stays tight could prove bearish for metal in the short to medium term.

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