The pressing need for critical minerals and their uncertain nature of supply is widely understood. A growing consensus of experts warns that the world will need to increase production of minerals such as graphite, lithium, and cobalt nearly 600% by 2050 to keep up with rising demand for products prominent in the energy transition, including electric vehicles, solar panels, wind turbines, and other critical industries…The United States, however, is heavily dependent on foreign sources for a number of these critical minerals, and China is dominant in both their mining and processing. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further underscoring critical dependencies for specific minerals, a comprehensive strategy that embraces both new domestic mining, sourcing from a diverse array of allied and partner nations, investment in infrastructure development for regional critical minerals recycling and processing facilities, and new technology for sourcing critical minerals is vital to any blueprint for strengthening the U.S. critical mineral supply chain. Further engagement with industry, and closer coordination with allies and free trade agreement partners are critical to devising policies that effectively address this problem…As outlined below, the Chamber encourages the administration to implement pragmatic and holistic policies to strengthen the supply chain for critical minerals with a focus on domestic production and processing as well as cooperation with allies and trustworthy partners…While broad-based tariffs on critical mineral imports would hinder access to raw materials used in a number of high-value applications, a holistic approach that targets specific needs and articulates implementable solutions and appropriate investment incentives is needed. The administration should focus its policies on clearly articulated national security concerns and risks relating to critical dependencies on non-market economies. The administration should implement these targeted measures in a manner that addresses unfair foreign competition and supports new domestic production while avoiding sudden shifts in policy that can disrupt investment plans, which may take years to implement…Mineral reserves are not distributed equitably among nations, and miners must go where the minerals are. The United States needs to build from previous efforts and increase work with allies and partners to develop additional sources of critical minerals as well as processing outside of China (an area where China’s dominance is also pronounced)…One example is Bismuth, a critical mineral used in the antidiarrheal and upset stomach ingredient bismuth subsalicylate, which is almost exclusively mined in China with no source in the United States…With critical minerals—including those named above but also rare earths—incorporated in nearly every piece of technology employed by the U.S. military, domestic production will be pivotal to the ability of the U.S. to defend itself and its allies…Despite substantial U.S. reserves of various critical minerals, there remains a significant gap in domestic processing and recycling infrastructure. Much of the critical minerals mined domestically, including rare earth elements, lithium, nickel, are exported abroad, particularly to China, for processing. China’s dominance in mineral processing is underpinned by its economies of scale, which allow it to process raw materials at lower costs. This not only gives China a strategic advantage in global supply chains but also enables it to capture the ancillary benefits of processing, such as the recovery of commercially valuable byproducts…Constructive and continuous engagement with industry experts and other stakeholders is essential to explore mechanisms—such as price guarantees and off-take agreements—that could counteract any market-distorting practices implemented by other countries and thus reduce the financial risks faced by U.S. processors. 

Critical mineral markets are at risk of painful disruptions after becoming more concentrated, particularly in refining and processing, and with the spread of export restrictions, the IEA said in a report on Wednesday…The use of critical minerals has spiked in recent years sparked by energy transition projects such as electric vehicles, battery storage, renewables and grid networks, while the industry has consolidated to a few major players…"Even in a well-supplied market, critical mineral supply chains can be highly vulnerable to supply shocks, be they from extreme weather, a technical failure or trade disruptions," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol…"The impact of a supply shock can be far-reaching, bringing higher prices for consumers and reducing industrial competitiveness," he said…China, the dominant force in the industry, is expected to continue to grow its refining capabilities at a faster pace than the rest of the world to 2035, and has also added two-thirds of global battery recycling capacity growth since 2020…This high concentration increases the global market's supply shock risk, especially with the expanding number of export control measures on critical minerals, the IEA said…Similar trends are expected in the mining sector, with lower diversification expected for copper, nickel and cobalt, while concentration is expected to ease with the mining of lithium, graphite and rare earths.

China's CMOC Group, the world's top cobalt mining company, called on Democratic Republic of Congo last week to lift a ban on exports of the battery metal, which is currently due to expire next month, three sources told Reuters…Congo, the world's leading cobalt producing country, imposed the four-month ban in February in an attempt to curb surpluses as cobalt prices touched nine-year lows around $10 a lb, or $22,000 a metric ton…Congo has kept the market guessing on its next steps when the ban ends on June 22. The government could extend the suspension and could also look at export quotas for the future, sources told Reuters in February…Ives said China's pipeline inventory was running out, and Congo needed to allow miners to freely export cobalt, said the sources, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the matter…One of the sources said the comments reinforced the officials' concerns that China is seeking to depress cobalt prices in order to build up strategic stockpiles…CMOC spokesperson Vincent Zhou declined to comment on Ives' remarks or questions regarding Congo's stockpiling fears but said that the company favours a "healthy market environment"…Chinese electric vehicle battery maker CATL is among CMOC's largest shareholders, with a 30% stake in the miner, according to LSEG data…CMOC expects to produce between 100,000 and 120,000 metric tons of cobalt this year - within range of last year's 114,000 tons and roughly double the 56,000 tons produced in 2023 - as it ramps up activity at its Tenke Fungurume and Kisanfu copper and cobalt mines in Congo…At the same session in Singapore, traders from Glencore, another leading cobalt miner, said the market required a stable price before the export ban is lifted and producer countries like Congo and Indonesia needed to manage oversupply, the three sources said…"The most likely scenario appears to be either an extension of the ban followed by the introduction of an export quota, or a direct transition to an export quota starting in late June," Benchmark Mineral Intelligence said in a recent release…"Both scenarios are likely to provide further support to pricing."

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) plans to announce a decision on the next steps of the cobalt export ban on June 22. This is when the measure currently in force will expire…“Regarding the [export] measures, our main goal is to rebalance the market and bring it back to a healthy and sustainable level to create local value. We need to take measures to transform the current challenges to become opportunities for the entire country,” he said….“The next decision will innovatively solve the issues facing the DRC. It will continue until the market balance is reached for the supply and demand of cobalt,” he added…“The fall in cobalt prices affected the local economy and did not benefit the country. This needs to change,” said Jimmy Munguriek, DRC country director of Resource Matters…Fastmarkets’ daily cobalt standard grade, in-whs Rotterdam price reached its lowest point earlier this year at $9.50-10.40 per lb on February 19. It was assessed at $15.25-16.50 per lb on Wednesday May 14…Representatives for the DRC also expressed a desire to integrate the country’s supply chain and step up domestic refining capacity. Some market participants said this was an effort to replicate Indonesia’s policy for cobalt and nickel production. 

Lithium-ion batteries were invented in the United States. But years ago, as part of a push toward electric vehicles, China took the lead in mass-producing them…Now there's a great race underway to see who will dominate the future of EV batteries…Chinese automakers are announcing newer, better batteries at a breakneck speed, including vehicles promising 5-minute "flash charge" times first demonstrated this spring. And, not coincidentally, more than half of new cars sold in China come with a plug…In the U.S., plug-in sales are lower and policies promoting EVs are politically divisive. The Trump administration has started the process of rolling back incentives, infrastructure and requirements encouraging them… They're also widely believed to be the technology of the future, and companies want to make sure they can compete in tomorrow's auto market as well as today's…"Unquestionably, the Chinese are ahead in manufacturing technology," says Bob Galyen, a retired executive whose long career in automotive batteries spanned both GM and the Chinese battery giant CATL. Today, profits from making batteries are being poured back into R&D in China, he says. "Clearly, the U.S. is lagging behind."…A few steps away, BYD was demonstrating what is perhaps a more consequential development: "flash charging." It's car battery charging at 1 megawatt (1,000 kW) — far more power than competitors — with batteries designed to be so efficient that they don't overheat under the high power load…"How fast is it? It can add two kilometers of range per second, or 400 kilometers in five minutes," said an engineer on site who declined to be named, citing company policy…No American company has announced anything like five-minute charging. But companies are very focused on bringing down battery costs to make EVs more affordable — without sacrificing the long range and large vehicles that American buyers prefer…Companies around the world are racing to build those, too. They include batteries based on sodium, for instance, which is cheaper and more abundant than lithium. Or "solid-state" batteries, entirely made from solid components instead of the liquid electrolyte used in today's batteries. These have gotten particular attention from the industry and the press because of their potential to be safer and cheaper while storing more energy…Kurt Kelty is GM's vice president of battery, propulsion and sustainability…acknowledges in the race for new battery tech, China has an advantage. "Some of these Chinese companies have massive R&D teams and they're getting a lot of funding from their governments," he says…At the same time, he points out that the types of batteries that Chinese companies make so well today were developed in the U.S. before being scaled up in Asia, where the companies buying them were located…Meanwhile China, which has already built up its domestic battery industry, is in the process of a global expansion…Chinese EV and battery companies, like BYD, have grown quickly on the back of strong government investment and subsidies. Years ago, the government recognized that batteries were going to be a key sector and made development of a battery supply chain, among other industries, a strategic priority.

Honda Motor said on Tuesday that it was scaling back its investment in electric vehicles given slowing demand and would be focusing on hybrids, now far more in favour, with a slew of revamped models…Honda has slashed its planned investment in electrification and software by that year by 30% to 7 trillion yen ($48.4 billion)…It's one of a number of global car brands dialling back EV investment due to the shift in demand in favour of hybrids and as governments around the world ease timelines to meet emission rules and EV sales targets…Honda plans to launch 13 next-generation hybrid models globally in the four years from 2027…The automaker is aiming to sell 2.2 million to 2.3 million hybrid vehicles by 2030, a huge jump from 868,000 sold last year. That also compares with a total of 3.8 million vehicles sold overall last year…Earlier this month, Honda announced it had put on hold for about two years a C$15 billion ($10.7 billion) plan to build an EV production base in Ontario, Canada, due to slowing demand for electric cars…Honda said, however, that it still plans to have battery-powered and fuel-cell vehicles make up all of its new car sales by 2040.

Fortune Minerals CEO Robin Goad joined Steve Darling from Proactive to announce that metallurgical test work validation is now essentially complete for the bismuth recovery circuits at the company’s flagship NICO cobalt-gold-bismuth-copper critical minerals project in Canada's Northwest Territories and Alberta…The development aligns with growing global demand for bismuth—a metal seeing renewed interest amid its use in pharmaceuticals, alloys, and green technologies—as well as soaring prices driven by China’s recent export restrictions on bismuth and other critical minerals…With 12% of the world’s known bismuth reserves, Fortune Minerals is positioned to become a key North American supplier of this increasingly strategic metal…These advancements are being supported by 17 million of non-dilutive government contribution including $6.3 million U.S. from the U.S. Department of Defense, underscoring the strategic importance of domestic critical minerals supply chains.

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