The cobalt market is no stranger to boom and bust cycles but the current downturn is unprecedented and no-one is sure how long it's going to last…London Metal Exchange (LME) cobalt has imploded from a high of $82,000 per metric ton in April 2022 to $21,550, the lowest level since the contract was launched in 2010…Once again the market has been swamped by over-production in the Democratic Republic of Congo, the world's dominant source of the battery metal…But while it was an artisanal mining surge that caused the bust of 2018-2019, this time around it's China's giant CMOC Group…CMOC was formerly known as China Molybdenum Corp and it remains a significant producer of the steel alloying ingredient…Both TFM and KFM mines have been aggressively ramping up output and the company had said it planned to lift cobalt output from 55,526 tons in 2023 to 60,000-70,000 tons in 2024…Actual production last year came in at 114,165 tons, stunning the market. Guidance for this year is 100,000-120,000 tons…Indeed, 98% of all the world's cobalt production comes as a by-product to either copper or nickel, according to the Cobalt Institute…Cobalt's demand profile has been transformed by its use in EV batteries but the metal's prospects look a little less stellar than a couple of years ago…Western EV manufacturers are still largely sticking with nickel-cobalt-manganese cathode chemistry but while Chinese EV sales rose by 36% last year, North American sales growth was a modest 9% and the European market actually contracted…The cobalt price has been crushed by the combination of massive supply surge and slowing demand dynamic…Cobalt has many military applications from munitions to high-temperature aerospace alloys used in fighter jets…Both the United States and the European Union classify it as a critical mineral and are committed to building out their own cobalt supply chains away from Chinese influence…But the bombed-out price is making that almost impossible…Jervois Mining, which received funds from the U.S. Department of Defense to develop a cobalt mine in Idaho, has suspended operations and announced a pre-packaged bankruptcy arrangement at the start of January…If the West wants its own cobalt supply chain, it's going to need a different pricing mechanism, because market dynamics suggest the price is not going to stage any significant recovery any time soon.

Nearly 3,000 people have been killed in the city of Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, according to the United Nations, after it was captured by rebels following days of fierce fighting with the Congolese army…The retrieval of the bodies comes after the rebel coalition, Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) – which includes the M23 armed group – announced a ceasefire from Tuesday “in response to the humanitarian crisis caused by the Kinshasa regime,” referring to DR Congo’s government…The government on Tuesday described the ceasefire as “false communication,” and heavy fighting has continued to be reported in South Kivu province, the UN said Wednesday…DR Congo – a country of more than 100 million people – has experienced decades of violence driven by ethnic tensions and fights over access to land and mineral resources, causing one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises…Rebels have made a string of territorial acquisitions in recent weeks in the nation’s east and the group’s leader has expressed the intention of capturing more cities, including the national capital Kinshasa…Kinshasa lies around 930 miles (1,500 kilometers) away from Goma, on the vast country’s western edge…In Goma, Van de Perre said the rebel group is consolidating control over the city and territories of North Kivu that it has already seized…The Congolese government has not confirmed the rebels’ takeover but acknowledged their presence in Goma. Last week, a new military governor was appointed for North Kivu, which was described by the Congolese military as being “under a state of siege.”

China said on Tuesday it would restrict exports of five metals used in defence, clean energy and other industries in response to fresh U.S. tariffs, refraining from the outright export bans Beijing has previously used against Washington…The restrictions were the latest attempt by China since 2023 to leverage its dominance in mining and processing critical minerals used in everything from smartphones and electric car batteries to infrared missiles and ammunition…Licences will now be required to export 20 tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum-related products to "safeguard national security interests", the Commerce Ministry said. Uses for the metals range from solar panels to artillery shells…Markets had speculated China would expand export controls ever since its decision last December to ban exports to the U.S. of antimony and other materials, according to Jessica Fung, head of Consulting at Project Blue…The move will likely force up prices outside China, she added.

Right now, Fortune Minerals is looking for financing to build a cobalt, gold and bismuth mine about 150 kilometres from Yellowknife. Robin Goad, the CEO, says that even the threat of a trade war with the U.S. was scaring off investment in Canadian mines.

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