Fastmarkets’ research team forecasts that EV sales in the US will reach 9.55 million units by 2034 under a Trump presidency, 5% lower than forecast for a Harris-victory scenario during the same period….“I would argue that the EV industry is poised for a setback under the Trump administration,” Fastmarkets energy storage system analyst Phoebe O’Hara said. “Trump is not known for his support of the green transition, and there is a significant likelihood that the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2027 emissions rules, which currently push strongly toward EV adoption, are likely to be revised. This could result in the United States failing to meet its expected targets for EV adoption of 50% by 2030.”…Fastmarkets has heard that Trump’s re-election also created uncertainty over the IRA, which is a key driver for new energy supply chain development under the Biden administration, mobilizing $400 billion to support clean energy and address climate change through tax credits, grants and loans…While it is unlikely that Trump could reverse the IRA in its entirety, considering Republicans’ vested interests in the IRA mechanism, it is likely that he could change its terms to make it more difficult for companies to qualify for subsidies, according to Fastmarkets’ battery raw materials demand analyst Connor Watts…Potential policy shifts in the US are leading to more conservative expansion plans for major battery raw materials along the supply chain, according to sources…Trump is expected to pursue protectionist policies to shift manufacturing within the country, Fastmarkets heard…Lithium-ion cells for EVs already face a 25% tariff, and EVs a 100% tariff, under the Biden administration, and from 2026, the 25% tariff will also apply to energy-storage cells…Market participants mostly downplayed the effect of any potential tariff increase on EVs exported to the US from China, given that the country only accounts for a small share of China’s EV exports…But the risk persists because Trump has strongly opposed the presence of Chinese companies establishing operations in Mexico, a battery maker source in China said, adding that he could place tariffs on Mexico-based Chinese companies or Chinese companies based in any other country and looking to sell in the US…For battery raw materials, potentially higher tariffs add risk to cobalt metal producers in China and Indonesia, according to sources…Currently, the US imposes a 25% tariff on Chinese cobalt metal imports, yet US imports from China remain substantial…A 60% tariff could drastically reduce and potentially eliminate these imports to the US, sources said.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that he is nominating former Wisconsin Representative and Fox Business News host Sean Duffy to be transportation secretary…If confirmed, Duffy will oversee aviation, automotive, rail, transit and other transportation policies at the department with about a $110 billion budget as well as significant funding that remains under the Biden administration's 2021 $1 trillion infrastructure law and EV charging stations…Trump has vowed to reverse the Biden administration's vehicle emissions rules. He has said he plans to begin the process of undoing the Biden administration's stringent emissions regulations finalized earlier this year as soon as he takes office. The rules cut tailpipe emissions limits by 50% from 2026 levels by 2032 and prod automakers to build more EVs…Duffy will also be in charge of oversight of companies run by Elon Musk, who has been closely involved in Trump's transition…USDOT is investigating Tesla TSLA.O Autopilot, while the FAA has proposed to fine SpaceX for violating space license rules. Musk has called for the resignation of FAA Administrator Mike Whitaker.

If the incoming Trump administration eliminates $7,500 federal tax credits for electric vehicles, that would mean the end of popular leases that allow US consumers to sidestep restrictions on which EV models qualify for incentives…President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team intends to revoke the tax credit for purchasing an EV, Reuters reported last week. Whether and when that could happen remains uncertain. A companion EV-leasing credit in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act would have to be dealt with separately but is widely seen as vulnerable. So people hoping to acquire an electric car might want to act soon…In October, leases accounted for 79% of EV sales at dealerships, according to Jessica Caldwell, executive director of insights at automotive research firm Edmunds.com Inc…This week, for instance, you can drive home a luxury electric BMW i4 for $460 a month, about the same price as leasing a middle-of-the-road gasoline Toyota Camry. Hyundai, meanwhile, is currently offering its sporty electric Ioniq 5 for $199 a month on a two-year lease…The IRA limits the purchase tax credit to electric vehicles assembled in North America and requires a percentage of battery components and critical minerals to originate there or in countries that have signed a free-trade agreement with the US…Congress would need to pass legislation to kill the EV tax credits, according to Romany Webb, deputy director of the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law at Columbia University. But absent Congressional action, she said Trump could order the IRS to revamp its guidance on how they are used…The agency “could, for example, revise the list of vehicles that are eligible for the tax credits or add new procedures for claiming the credits,” said Webb. “That could make it more practically challenging for people to take advantage of the credits and, generally, introduce a lot of uncertainty and confusion that could make people less willing to purchase or lease EVs.”… “These tax credits are for consumers, but they’re also really for automakers so that they can scale up the production of electric vehicles and can remain competitive,” said Harto. “So while repealing the tax credit will hurt consumers, it probably hurts automakers even more.”