“When I think about climate change, I think jobs,” U.S. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said. His landmark Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) embodies this idea, tying together U.S. climate and industrial policies with a vast array of subsidies aimed at sparking a green manufacturing boom. Built into these subsidies are mechanisms to secure U.S. supply chains and to shore up domestic manufacturing, which has atrophied in recent decades, strategic priorities that Biden inherited from his predecessor, Donald Trump…Although recent U.S. policymaking has exhibited a hyperfocus on supply chain security for semiconductors and other dual-use items, an area of equal – arguably greater – strategic significance is the supply of critical minerals, the building blocks of most advanced technologies, including those with military application…Ever-present, but often unspoken, in Washington’s supply chain strategy is China. From the nickel used in fighter jet engines to the rare earth elements used in wind turbines, China’s dominance in the global supply of critical minerals presents a potential chokehold on U.S. industry. China accounts for 77 percent of the world’s refined cobalt, 65 percent of its chemical lithium, and 91 percent of its battery-grade graphite. All three minerals are essential for the production of lithium-ion batteries, a key component in the green transition…Critical minerals sit at the intersection of three policy objectives for the United States. First, policymakers must ensure national security. If China were to cut off supply of critical minerals, it could devastate the U.S. economy, with particular impacts for the manufacture of advanced technologies, including those with military application. This is why the U.S. is seeking to decouple and reshore supply chains. Second, policymakers are seeking to revive the U.S. manufacturing sector and catalyze job creation by embracing fast-growing green industries, in particular the EV sector. Third, policymakers are addressing the climate crisis by accelerating the rollout of green technologies…A fundamental challenge is that U.S. industry, and that of Western allies more broadly, has struggled to compete with the low prices of Chinese producers, and the price gap is only getting wider. In theory, a balanced diet of policies that would correct the market distortions of Chinese subsidies (and the resultant oversupply that has flooded international markets) would be the ideal solution to safeguard U.S. green technology growth, but this is difficult…China is equally weaponizing supply chains, and nowhere is this clearer than in the area of critical minerals. Beijing has proved willing to employ export controls in pursuit of geopolitical ends, most notably following a 2010 diplomatic incident with Japan over the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. Most recently in 2023, Chinese restrictions on gallium and germanium exports, as well as greater export controls on high-grade graphite, have rung alarm bells…Yet, in a nod to competition with China over its burgeoning EV industry, Chinese EVs will this year face a 100 percent tariff, with tariffs on solar cells and EV lithium-ion batteries rising to 50 percent and 25 percent, respectively, in an attempt to insulate U.S. industry from a “China Shock 2.0.” …The blurring of policy priorities is partly a definitional issue. The term “critical minerals” disguises the question: critical for what? Critical minerals required for sustaining armed conflict are overlapping but distinct from those required for the green transition. Generally defined by their economic significance and their risk of supply chain disruption, lists of critical minerals vary in length and composition across jurisdictions…First, U.S. policymakers fear a conflict scenario with China in which the IRA and other policies have failed to build up sufficient domestic capacity, and U.S. military industrial capacity is left crippled by an embargo. Amid rising concerns over Xi Jinping’s intentions for Taiwan and bullish Chinese behavior in the contested waters of the South China Sea, a conflict scenario appears ever more real…Trump has repeatedly called climate change a “hoax,” and the green transition is not an area he would be likely to prioritize. Nevertheless, the securitization of critical mineral supply chains has been a unique point of continuity between Trump and Biden. Indeed, the IRA can be understood as a soft-spoken continuation of Trump’s “America First” protectionism.